JOE'S TRAVELING SALVATION SHOW MOVES ON--SURPIRSING ONLY THE COMATOSE

How about we start with the obvious?

When management employs a baseball manager to work in the last year of his contract that is not very secret Code that he is Conditionally fired. The only Condition which saves him is a trip to the World Series. So all those folks who were handwringing and wondering what was to become of Joe after the big meeting with Theo the hangman were wasting a lot of energy on a self-evident proposition.

Those of you who have worked with your friendly Basin in the past are familiar with my most basic, molecular theory that everyone in every public job has a “sell-by” date. Joe’s departure is probably less a matter of “sell-by date” that it is a matter of bad Feng Shui.

In one corner of the room, we had the highly caffeinated THEO telling anyone who would listen that the 2019 season was a test of both the character and the Competitive worthiness of “our organization.” In the other corner, we had Joe with his faux zen approach to baseball decisions, his refusal to connote urgency in any fashion and a personality constitutionally incapable of directly challenging a player or a performance. To say the same thing another way, in one Corner we had, “the fierce urgency of now…” And in the other corner, we had a slightly Bohemian, if remote, “one game at a time, and have fun while doing it” approach.  

Thus, if the fact that Joe did not have an extension did not tell even the dullest of dullards out there that he wasn’t coming back, absent a superhuman performance and an injury-free year, that same dullard Could have just listened in on the Cubs Conventions and felt the messaging dissonance.

The Basin has never been in the tank for Joe. On the one hand, no Cub manager has ever had a cumulative five years to match Joe’s. On the other hand, no Cub manager has ever worked five Consecutive years with the benefit of and Epstein/Hoyer player development system. On the one hand, Joe had the services of one of the most Decorated left-handed starters and modern baseball history. On the other hand, there is a legitimate school of thought that Lester does not Come to the Cubs if Joe is not there.

There are those who say Joe underperformed in 2017 and 2018. In fairness to Joe, he was deprived of an accomplished leadoff hitter and a baseline Competent centerfielder. He also had to say goodbye to one of the fiercest right-handed pitchers of this century. He was, if nothing else, a victim of the Epstein/Hoyer persistent, nagging overvaluing of Almora.

If Epstein is still on the “urgency” bandwagon, then the model for the manager he seeks is Leo Durocher, who happens to be. Inconveniently, dead. Of Course, Epstein wants Leo Durocher who writes Code and calculates BABIP on a napkin. Since that new Durocher doesn’t exist, Theo will find a propeller head. Time enough for that discussion later. I will just say that David Ross is way too smart to accept a job, even if it is offered to him. He has tremendous self-promotion skill, and managers are hired to be fired. Getting fired would diminish his Iconic status in Chicago, and Ross will not run that risk.

The more interesting question is, “where is Joe the best fit?” He has done the small-market thing, so that lets out Pittsburgh. In addition to being a relatively small market, San Diego has some other built-in problems. Going to the Angels would give him a chance to manage the best player in baseball and to be reunited with many people he really likes. But taking a job would also include a pretty long glide path to becoming competitive. It is not impossible, but it would be nothing more than a comfortable compromise. The Mets were talented but disappointing this year. They trot out three front-line starting pitchers. All Mets management has to do is decide quickly to drop the hammer on Callaway and write the Correct size check to Joe. Joe and the Mets are a marriage made in heaven, at least for about three years.

Hiring Joe is a little like hiring Phil Jackson.  Joe creates his own environment, his own geist.  He ingratiates the right people.  Joe creates an aura of unique knowledge.  He develops constituencies.  Theo tiptoed around an extension and a "friendly meeting" to avoid “firing” Joe.  Joe will never let that happen again.  When he leaves his next job, there will be agony for the guy who drops the hammer.

Which is the last, but most important, thing any owner or general manager should understand about hiring Joe. Go ahead and hire him. But make sure you retire before his Feng Shui goes bad or he hits his "Sell-by" date.