EARLY VOTING AND CAMPAIGN TECHNIQUES

Illinois, like many other states, has gone to a pure early voting period. Some western states have been doing this for more than a decade. Some of my political friends from a southern state say it is a pain for campaigns. In Early voting, the voter needs none of the excuses or reasons required for absentee voting. They just come in and vote.

There are those who think this gives incumbents an advantage because some people will vote before the challenger has gotten his or her name fully established. My guess is that this would be true in Municipal Elections, where the cycle is short. In a Statewide General or Primary, if folks don't know who you are and what you stand for a month before the vote, you probably didn't have much of a chance anyhow. For a Countywide or Legislative District election, my guess would be the same in the November General. I don't know about a Countywide Primary. It might increase turnout, which would usually be good for an energetic challenger, but it would put the heat on the challenger to explain sooner why the incumbent should be put out of office.

In another State that has early voting, 5% of the citizens voted early in the '04 General. If that turns out to be the Early Vote in a County primary, there wouldn't be much impact. If it's something like 20%, primary candidate would have to rework entire campaign calendars. Instead of a concentrated message in the last two weeks, the hypothetical challenger would have to spread expenditures out over something like six weeks.

Early voting in even numbered years in Illinois could turn on Spring Vacations schedules, how convenient some folks find their polling places and how high the profile is for that race. RIght now candidates will have to make decisions based upon guesses or other state's data. Eventually we will know what an expected early turnout is and the political consultants will have a field day, explaining to candidates why they have to stretch out their final push.

It could be crazier. One state already has early voting by mail, without absentee excuse, on demand. I can think of about ten legal ways to take advantage of that, but they would all be expensive.