MCCOY LOWER EXPECTATIONS STRATEGY

It is becoming clear what the McCoy campaign strategy is at this stage. He's going to events and being his usual, genial self. His people are telling everybody who will listen that he is in an uphill battle and it will really take a fantastic effort to knock Fish off. This is right off of page one of the Shrub playbook for 2000. Make it look like a potential blowout so, when it actually appears to be a presentable race in the fall, it will look like he's in middle of great upset with tremendous momentum.

This is a simple strategy to blunt. Simply expect a top notch effort out of Jon and prepare for it in all respects now. The only way this downplay strategy works is Fish and his close people start to buy into it. Apply the Charlie Williams theory: Run like you're 10,000 votes behind.

Still, you have to give the GOP leadership a lot of credit. They make it sound like Jon's one step away from a sleeping bag and a shopping cart. Good Strategy, Good Message Discipline. One Problem: Fish isn't listening.