NORTH CAROLINA HOLD 'EM: EDWARDS IS "ALL IN"
It is now obvious that Edwards had decided his best hope is to either knock HRC out of the race or mortally wound her in NH.
His Chief Campaign Jock is a tough and practical guy and I'm sure this decision was not difficult for them. Edwards is running as "Obsessed Change Agent". Obama is Running as "MLK Change Agent Nice". All of this has sort of left HRC with the role of "Grownup Gradualist". Edwards believes that his smidge of experience in the Senate and National Politics gets him more than half of HRC's supporters in the event she drops out. He also knows that he doesn't have and can't get the money to cover all the bases on Feb. 5.
Oversimplified, the decision to try to knock HRC out NOW is based on two things: an abiding confidence by Edwards in his own ability to persuade people in upcoming states he'd bring about more and faster change than Obama and the simple, arithmetic fact that he can't financially compete with two well-funded people on February 5 in multiple states around the Country.
Maybe it would have been more fruitful to gang up on Obama but Edwards correctly judged that Obama has come off as too affable to attack without repercussion.
Heck, what does it cost Edwards to push all his chips in the middle and try and get back into the tournament in one hand? Just the cabinet post he wasn't going to get anyhow.
Of course, he could execute the strategy perfectly and it might fail anyhow. That really doesn't mean it was the wrong one. He has to win this hand, now, or he can't continue in this high-stakes poker tourney.
Of course, there is always some risk to annoying a former President with moneyed ties all around the world. Don't think that's a problem for Edwards. This is probably his last run unless it bears fruit.
posted by UMRBlog @ 02:47
15 comments
15 Comments:
When does Camp Clinton go nuclear negative on Obama? You know it is coming.
I'm guessing they have a picture of him from college hitting a bong that will hit the Internet the Thursday before Super Tuesday.
Hillary Clinton certainly won’t drop out after her loss in New Hampshire; she will stagger on but prove unable to stop Obama. And to watch the Clinton’s rage and desperation grow in the last days of this campaign will not be pretty. They will lash out at everyone, including Obama, the media, her own campaign, and maybe, eventually, each other.
This is a couple not known for their grace or for holding lightly to their grip on power.
My read is that Edwards needs Clinton to pull out so he can get one-on-one media exposure against Obama.
(I'm assuming Obama will win NH by about the same margin as he won Iowa, maybe slightly more.)
I don't see HRC pulling out unless Edwards comes in a clear 2nd, leaving HRC in a distant 3rd.
Early in the race, I wished she hadn't entered b/c it diminished the substantiative discussion among the other candidates. But whatever.
BTW, I admire whoever came up with the observation about how candidates have 14 years from when they first appear on the national scene to get elected. Seems like a true observation.
As Bob Dole and John Kerry showed, one can get the nomination past the 14 year point, but not win the presidency.
I look forward to the show. As far as the candidates go, I like them all. I am just as glad to vote for Hillary as Barack or John Edwards this November. I still think Hillary is done. She is like Barbara Streisand. Great entertainer. Love to see her show. But we have tickets to see American Idol Barack Obama right now.
Carl,
That's half the story. The other part is he can't financially compete in a one-day 22 State votefest and he knows it. I think he's playing his hand admirably.
TYFCB
New local blog. Link us when we earn your trust.
http://dicktucksillmo.blogspot.com/
So glad you were talking about the legendary Trickster and not a surgical procedure.
How you gonna handle comments.
Planning to moderate them when I'm offline.
There are many things to say about the deeper meaning of this moment and what its passing will signify. Suffice it to say that it will be good, very good, for us to say farewell to the couple that brought you Carville, Begala, Blumenthal, and Ickes; the “war room,” the use of private investigators, and attacks on women like Dolly Kyle Browning, Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers, and Kathleen Willey; impeachment for perjurious, false and misleading testimony to a grand jury; contempt of court findings; the promiscuous smearing of those whom they viewed as threat to their power; the charges of a “vast right-wing conspiracy” and assurances that “I did not have sexual relations with that woman”; and so much more.
I propose the following thought experiment. Imagine your son is a US Marine. Imagine his outfit showing colors for the Commander In Chief just prior to its deployment to a jihadi viper pit overseas. Your son must salute that Commander In Chief. Here are the feasible choices of who your son could be saluting a year from now:
* Hillary Clinton
* Barak Obama
* John Edwards
* Mike Huckabee
* Mitt Romney
* John McCain
* Rudy Giuliani
* Fred Thompson
My son, being in the middle class, I will gladly let him salute any of the first three before the final five. He is much less likely to go to war this way and is also less likely to have his retirement benefits cut.
0922,
The answer is simple. A fighting Man salutes the CINC as a position, not a human being.
The deeper answer is very personal for me. I want him saluting the person who will make sure he doesn't get screwed out of promise veterans' benefits as my brothers in arms have. Only person I've seen ballsy enough to stick her chin out in that fight is HRC.
God Bless Lane Evans, he was the bionic man when it came to standing up for us, but he's not gonna be president. God Bless Joe Biden because he was on it from jump street.
I'm gonna hope my hypothetical son salutes the president who worries about keeping the country's promises to him.
TYFCB
1:40
Examples of how she has and Bush hasn't?
Hoo! Hoo! What do I think about Senator Clinton being a supporter of the military???! You have got to be kidding me! We lean to the right at my house, but it doesn't take much (12 years and more of exposure to)Mrs. Clinton to see that she has done nothing for the military! Name me one!
140
Great response.
It gets tough when you have to actually back it up with facts.
Post a Comment
<< Home