Tuesday, January 29, 2008

BE WATCHING FOR THE ANGEL OF DEATH TONIGHT

I can't remember the name of the CBS show. It always revolved around the Angel of Death showing up and taking someone to "the other side".

Tonight, in Florida, the Angel is likely to take Rudy to a different side. Rudy is going to Giuliani Partners. Notice I didn't say "back" to Giuliani Partners. That's because the GP to which he returns will not be the cash machine it once was. It's much more expensive to do business with a future president than a former mayor who looks like Janos Skorzeny minus a couple pints of O negative. The customer list will be smaller and the rates will be lower.

Ya see, Florida was Rudy's firewall state. It was a good plan. Don't play in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan, then hit 'em with a socko-boffo win in Fla. Very fine plan.

But Rudy didn't have the resolve to stick to his own plan. Instead, he played "a little" in those places. He stuck his toe in. And he got blasted everywhere he was a dilletante candidate. That ruptured confidence among his Florida Peeps and his relocated New Yorkers in the sunshine state. Soon he was reeling. Every answer to every question had (credit to Joe Biden) three basic elements "A subject, a verb and 9/11". His very reasonable explanations for the way he handled illegals in NYC began to sound like sembling. He backtracked on his gay-tolerance and his abortion stance. He was the same empty suit as Romney, only without the moral standards. Kerik hurt a little, not much. And that all might have been OK, still, simply because Romney disagrees like a sissy and Giuliani can argue like the trial lawyer he once was.

But nobody allowed for the Crazy Uncle with a Head of Steam. McCain took the security vote, the Thompson vote, the Veteran vote and, by accident, even the Cubano vote. The Mormon with One Wife Took the arbitrager/fortune 500 wannabe and his share of the Blue Hair vote. The firewall was now fully engulfed in flames. He has to get out before he loses New York to the Crazy Uncle or the Empty Suit.

I don't know whether the Crazy Uncle or the Empty Suit wins tonight. For Rudy, it doesn't matter. He could have made his plan work. He either believed in it or he didn't. His dabbling behavior in Iowa, NH and Michigan shows that he didn't.

You will hear two stories tonight in the press about Rudy: One, the polling data he used to devise his strategy was bad (no, it was just based on polls taken before anyone started casting votes, always a dicey proposition); or, two, Rudy was a worse candidate than anticipated (no, he might have been better suited for NYC than the Panhandle, but he was a known, not bad commodity as a campaigner.). Rudy forgot an old maxim "Plan your work. Work your plan." As time went on, Rudy wandered away from his plan.

This is a very good night for a New York Mayor......but his name is not Rudy Giuliani. Bloomberg/Hagel will not be far behind this self-emolation.

11 Comments:

At 11:00 AM, January 30, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like John Edwards is "crossing over" as well----or don't you speak of such things here?

 
At 11:48 AM, January 30, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The odds that Mayor Bloomberg will run for President is tiny. Intrade odds went from 16% to 6% over the last 24 hours based on McCain's win and Rudy's loss. Maybe the media will stop covering his ego-fueled speculation until he actual throws his hat in the ring. And that isn't happening.

 
At 12:10 PM, January 30, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like the angel got a twofer with Edwards dropping out of the race today. A shame, I really wanted to hear more about him being the “son of a millworker”, how fighting poverty is his “life’s work” (which he’ll now have time to do from his palacial estate). Maybe now he can go and try to find that poor little girl a winter coat (she hasn’t had one since 2004 apparently). Good riddance from the race.

And although he comes off as a snake-oil salesman as a politician he seems to be a decent guy personally and a family man who has been through things in his personal life that required great strength and faith to get through. I also hope his wife wins her brave battle against cancer.

 
At 12:45 PM, January 30, 2008, Blogger UMRBlog said...

QCE,

Look at when I wrote this post. Edwards pullout then looked like it would wait until after debate.

Besides, I really wanted to defend Rudy's strategy and criticize his own inability to follow it.

TYFCB

 
At 12:46 PM, January 30, 2008, Blogger UMRBlog said...

If you had coffee individually with all three of them, he is the one you'd like best and find almost no offensive ego in.

TYCB

 
At 1:24 PM, January 30, 2008, Blogger JoeBama "Truth 101" Kelly said...

Edwards did the right thing. He probably should have dropped out when his wife was diagnosed. In this age of celebrity there was no way he could compete with Clinton and Obama anyway. This may well be calculated on his part too. If somehow we screw up and the Republican wins we may well beg Edwards to come back in 2012.

 
At 2:12 PM, January 30, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The practical effect of Edward's exit is that there is no one left to split the anti-Hillary vote in the remaining Democratic party contests. This should give Obama a boost going into Super Tuesday although he trails badly in so many individual state polls that it is questionable as to whether Edward's retirement will make him much more competitive with Clinton.

 
At 3:34 PM, January 30, 2008, Blogger UMRBlog said...

1412,

Ah, only half of an analysis. There is also no one left to split the anti-Durbin, anti-Daley vote. I suspect that midwestern and western women over 55 break more to HRC than BO.

But you are also correct, except for Connecticut, Georgia, Alabama, Illinois and maybe Kansas the fat is probably already in the fire.

The other thing is, however, that will still not make up sufficient delegates to feed the bulldog.

As an aside, I get a yuck out of CNN. They put up Politico's delegate numbers, showing HRC substantially ahead in delegates, then read off some other delegate numbers not even vaguely close to their own website when they want to talk about how things are turning around for the Prince. Close races sell soap.

TYFCB

 
At 6:27 PM, January 30, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

212

I don't profess to have any deep understanding of Democratic politics (or, after this past month, Republican politics either), but one can make the opposite case. Nearly all Edwards voters are white and I suspect his class-warfare theme may be attracting some lower income and union voters. Whites, low income voters, and union members have been part of Hillary Clinton's bloc.

 
At 11:53 AM, January 31, 2008, Anonymous Anonymous said...

UMR, since I'm not a regular reader here, I wasn't sure if unpleasant news was allowed about Democrats. Some partisan blogs do not allow any bad news about "their side" and instead focus on bad news on the "other".

But since I was here I decided to leave a comment anyway.

My real mission was to find an email addy for you, which I didn't. I didn't want to email your firm since I figured people other than yourself would have access it.

Also, I have no legal business in Quincy.

But if you would email me at qcexaminer-at-msn-dot-com, I would like to discuss something with you.

 
At 6:55 PM, January 31, 2008, Blogger UMRBlog said...

QCE,

I blast my brother and sister dems all the time.

rule5draft@gmail.com

I put it up here periodically. Write any time.

TYFCB

 

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