PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CALIBRATION: LEMME SEE IF I UNDERSTAND THIS CORRECTLY
We've had two popular caucuses: Obama won one; Clinton won one. We've had two primaries: Clinton won one; Obama won one. We also have committed Superdelegates and delegates who have allowed themselves to be counted. Clinton has about a hundred more than Obama (with about two percent of the total decided). We're moving into a more national election on SD Tuesday, where Clinton is ahead in 18 of 20 States with primaries and three of the four entities with caucuses.
Teddy Kennedy just leaked he's endorsing Obama, which should be wonderful for Clinton in Mo. Kansas, Montana and Washington. Kennedy will also announce that he wants to take Obama on a car trip to an Eastern resort area. That could free up a lot of electoral votes.
(Now back to my serious point) So, in light of all this parity and opportunity, why are CNN and Fox burying Hillary Clinton as completely anihilated by the loss of one primary? I suspect some of the more hard bitten democrats will conclude that nobody is allowed to be the Prince of Good Feeling Generalities in a general election and they better elect somebody who's already been vetted by professionals Like the Arkansas Project and Kenny-Boy Starr (Boy, I miss watching him take his trash out--that clod didn't even recycle.) and come up goose eggs.
Don't worry, Be Hillary. The universe is unfolding as it should.
posted by UMRBlog @ 17:19
23 comments
23 Comments:
From what I understand, everyone pulled out of the Democratic primaries in Michigan and Florida except Hillary. Those states' delegates are not supposed to count now as punishment for moving their primaires up on the schedule.
She said she stayed in because those delegates weren't going to count so it didn't make any difference. Now that Obama is proving to be a legit contender to what was supposed to be Hillary's coronation, she's saying she wants those delegates to count.
Is this your understanding? If this is right, what is your take on it?
1750,
Three distinct issues there. First, being on the ballot. Hillary had already qualified when the Michigan sanctions came down. The others simply never got on. She made no effort to get herself off but kept her pledge, as did everyone else, not to campaign there. Florida's different because the sanctions came later. All three candidates are on the ballot. They have all pledged not to campaign in Florida. This is the second issue: whether to campaign in the sanctoned states. I think they should keep that pledge with this proviso: some of the North Florida Television Markets are the Markets for portions of Alabama and Georgia, SDT States. I would have no problem with any of them doing an event in one of these markets. If any of them go to the Florida only markets they will lose support in the big blue states. That is a breach of a campaign agreement made by all three.
Finally, the issue of "seating" the delegates necessarily follows. Without question, all three campaigns will move and urge their delegates to vote to seat and recognize the Mich and Florida delegations in Denver. To do otherwise would be foolish. The economic part of the sanctions would have already bitten--no campaign economic boost from a primary, no photo-ops for locals. It's just a no brainer. We'd kind of like to win those states in the Fall.
Now, I'm aware there's some talk in the National HRC campaign of HRC going to Florida because of the large turnout of early dem voters. I think that would be a mistake. The party imposed sanctions on those states for important demographic and fairness reasons (Hillary's guy McAuliffe was one of the architects). If the candidates break the embargo, any future attempts by parties to control the sequence of their own primaries will be unenforceable.
As you can probably tell, I won't use up any space here defending such a move. I'm very hopeful grownups in the HRC campaign will prevail and this won't happen.
TYFCB
Will Rezko come out more in depth ? I wonder when the HRC / WJC axe starts to swing .
This is the only race worthy of watching !
Grand politics at a National level !
“I'm very hopeful grownups in the HRC campaign will prevail and this won't happen.”
I guess the grownups didn’t prevail.
Clinton to Campaign in Florida
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080127/D8UEG4RG0.html
Then again I guess it's depends on the definition of campaigning.
I think the premise is that she's going there just to take returns. Guess I'll wait to read the book before I review it.
TYFCB
What Do Barack Obama And A Dewers On The Rocks Have In Common?
CNN and FOX must not have learned the lesson I got from New Hampshire.
don't get down umerblogger, Janet Reno endorsed your guy.
Alinsky's 5th rule: Ridicule is man's most potent weapon
It is obvious now that the Clintons have seized upon race as Obama's potentially lethal vulnerability. They had probably hoped they would not have to use Obama's race against him to create a white backlash of electoral victories, but that point is now moot.
By attacking Obama's authenticity as a new icon for African-Americans, the Clintons understand full well, I believe, that the black community will rally to Obama, thereby demonstrating to the broader electorate that it's been about race after all.
That's a fairly shopworn theory--plausible but sort of CW by now.
I have another theory. A guy with no primary wins goes into SC desperate and starts saying stuff like --I'm not supposed to be here (points to back of hand) but thanks to Dr. King and others like him (Make list, mention Clyburn, Lewis)here I am. Guy gets first and only primary win and a double bonus. He gets to be the victim and an honorary member of Cameflop.
My theory actually happened. Yours is a guess at what's going on between Hillary's ears.
Now, help me out with this, who injected race into this election cycle? I think I believe Charlie Rangel and John Conyers.
TYFCB
The first racial blow, of course, was Hillary's. She failed to adequately acknowledge MLK's stature by stating that it took LBJ to get the Civil Rights Act into law. This was confirmation that they would use any and every means necessary to achieve a second co-presidency. Everyone who knows anything about Democratic Party politics of the last 40 years, knows that any slight whatsoever of MLK is tantamount to blasphemy.
I heard the whole Q&A sequence. The answer was nothing more than historically correct.
In fact, she did slight someone. As you may know, the second half of the CRA didn't get passed in '64. By '65, LBJ didn't have a friend in the Senate. Desperately casting about, he looked for a sponsor for the back half of the package. Democrat leadership told him they'd vote for it but they weren't using any chips on it.
Everett Freaking Dirksen, sponsored the bill that completed the CRA package as we know it today. How much courage did that take?
Anyway, all she did was answer Russert's question factually with no disrespect to MLK. You wanna say that was politically tone deaf? OK. You wanna say that was intentional drawing of racial lines? I say horseflop. She was actually highlighting the difference between inspirational leaders and technically skilled leaders.
The real reason it's not a fair point is because it Takes on The Prince and that's not allowed. The CNN police, the old fart Senate Police and the Beltway Columnist Police will not allow it. Anything which makes The Prince Unhappy is impermissible. And, if we ask you to stop annoying the Prince, and you don't stop.......then you're a racist.
Is this all the freaking farther we have come?
BTW, while I'm at it, If Teddy is gonna break his pledge and endorse, he oughta take responsibility for his decision instead of saying "Bill Clinton Made Me Do It!"
How easy it is to holler "racebaiting" about the most progressive color-blind white man in the history of American Government. I'm sorry Ron Brown is dead but I'm glad he doesn't have to watch this.
TYFCB
Say what you will about Sen. Obama (and I say that he's got much more charisma than guts), he is miles above this sort of squalor and has decent manners. Say what you will about the Clintons, you cannot acquit them of having played the race card several times in both directions and of having done so in the most vulgar and unscrupulous fashion. Anyone who thinks that this equals "change" is a fool, and an easily fooled fool at that.
Classy Guy, Good Guy, Friend of Mine, Broad Visionary, Good for the Country. All of that. He does have a hell of a sense of entitlement to Princely treatment and he does not have to lift a finger to enforce it.
CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS and even FOX will do it for him.
Tell me exactly what HRC has done that is racist or unscrupulous in the context of this campaign. I don't process conclusions too well but I can manage facts.
TYFCB
Identifying one's target for polarization can be a bit tricky, and may involve singling out the CEO of a multi-layered corporation or finding out which person in government holds the seat where the buck truly does stop, or in the impeachment of Bill Clinton, finding out just who was out to get our imperfect but lovable president.
To Alinsky, in the march to nonviolent revolutionary power transfer, identifying one's genuine enemy was entirely secondary to merely pinning the enemy tail on one donkey or another, just as long as it served to rally the Have Nots. Targets needed to be specific, but they didn't need to really be your enemy. A target simply had to be seen as a vile enemy in the minds of one's followers.
Ken Starr understands the Clintons' operational application of this principle, even if he has never read up on Alinksy. In a political campaign, however, less strategic guesswork is required. The enemy is the one running against you, who might actually win, and thereby grab the power prize for himself.
I found the BUSH admin to be the MOST Color blind . I know hardened Dems do not like to hear it , but Reagan signed MLK Day into effect .
Bush has had more minoritys at Cabnet levels , than WJC .
Here's the WORST ! Judge Thomas is destroyed by the same CNN, CBS, MSNBC and NBC while they protect the Prince.
Same way the Media got mad at Tiger Woods for not getting that mad.
Teddy blabed so long people forgot who they were there to see. He lost the youngters with the 60’s this and the 60’s that. No mention that Uncle Bobby wire tapped Obama’s hero MLK. That’s the dirt dems just like to keep under the rug.
I thought Teddy looked surprisingly good. He looks like he may cutting back on the chowder and scotch. Nice that the way he segmented society. Oh yes the party of inclusion noting our diffrences and not what brings us together. Republicans see Americans. Democrats see rich, poor, men, women, white, black, black, Latino, American-Indian, Italian, Polish, Eskimos, Jews, Christians, atheists, straights, gays, trans-sexuals, bi-sexuals. The list goes on. Sad party for small minds.
Tookie,
The frightening part is I understood every word.
TYFCB
Gee, all this time I thought that was J. Edgar in his housedress and pumps.
Yeah, Repubs would never look at small demographic pockets like Cubanos or Indian Gambling Licensees.
TYFCB
The South Flordia Cuban are one hell of a voting block !
I do think the media esp on a Nat'l level is to blame . they are so in dire need of some sort of descriptive , that the words Serbs , Croat , and Bosinians come to mind.
Soon the love affair with the Prince will be over and he will get squished like a bug .
Really , I haven't been happy with Bush , but Obama just doesn't do a thing for me .
redeeming qualities of HRC are , the Clintons learned from their 8 years not to hack the Defence & Intel budgets . 911 shook them as hard as anyone .
Umr: tell us what to do! You're an ICON of the local Democratic Party. Ted Kennedy is an icon nationally. He endorses Obama. You endorse Hillary. Now what?
1342,
You are too kind. I do have a better driving record than he does, though.
Here is exactly what you should do:
1. Make advance arrangments to take five democrats with you to the polls;
2. Tell them you are voting your conscience on the presidential beauty contest but it is vital to the preservation of western society that UMR be elected as a delegate to the national convention;
3. Instruct them to do the same, conscience for president, UMR for delegate;
4. When you're done, charge each of them $10 in poll tax/gas money;
5. Take the resulting $50.00 and send it to the SHERIFF FISCHER COMMITTEE;
6. Breathe deeply, know the universe is unfolding as it should and the world will prosper with the first female leader of the free world.
Thank you for asking.
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