Sunday, October 22, 2006

HUMBLE SENATE PREDICTIONS: YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR

Two weeks out, here are my Senate Predictions. As you can see, this is a recipe for gridlock:

SEAT FAVORITE STATUS COMMENT

AZ/KYLE KYL NO CHNG PEDERSON
HAS A FUTURE

CA/FEINSTEIN FEINSTEIN NO CHNG

CONN/LIEBERMAN LIEBERMAN TAKEAWAY D to "I"

DELAWARE CARPER NO CHNG

FLA NELSON NO CHNG

HAWAII AKAKA NO CHNG

INDIANA LUGAR NO CHNG

MAINE SNOW NO CHNG

MD. CARDIN NO CHNG

MASS KENNEDY NO CHNG

MICH STABENOW NO CHNG SNEAKY
CLOSE

MINN KLOBUCHAR TAKEAWAY

MISS LOTT NO CHNG

MO. TALENT NO CHNG

MONTANA TESTER TAKEAWAY

NE B NELSON NO CHNG

NV ENSIGN NO CHNG CARTER
HAD $ BUT
NO
THEME

NJ MENENDEZ NO CHNG UGLY

NM BINGAMAN NO CHNG

NY CLINTON NO CHNG

ND CONRAD NO CHNG

OHIO BROWN TAKEAWAY GOP HAS
KISSED IT
OFF

PENN CASEY TAKEAWAY

RHODE ISLAND CHAFEE NO CHANGE UPSET
PICK

TENN FORD TAKEAWAY

TX HUTCHISON NO CHNG

UTAH HATCH NO CHNG

VERMONT SANDERS TAKEAWAY (D TO I)

VA. ALLEN NO CHNG CHOICE
BTWN 2
JERKS
WA CANTWELL NO CHNG

WV BYRD NO CHNG

WISC KOHL NO CHNG

WYOMING THOMAS CHNG

If this plays out the way I predict, there'll be 47 dems, three independents and 50 Repubs. The I's would caucus with the dems but the leadership seats would go to the GOP. Of course, Cheney would still break ties. GOP could get a takeaway in NJ or Mich. GOP could get a "hold" in Tenn. Dems could get an additional takeaway in Virginia but I think GOP will lock Allen up in a rubber room to prevent his making any more enemies or ethnic slurs.

Yes, I know. Didn't predict a takeaway in MO.

Labels:

9 Comments:

At 12:34 AM, October 23, 2006, Anonymous Waldo said...

With that set of results the composition would in fact be GOP 51 Dem 47 Ind 2

Minnesota cannot be a Dem takeway, since the seat is presently Dayton's.

In Vermont, Jeffords is retiring. The election of Sanders would be an indy hold, not a gain. Leaving total of two independents if Lieberman is returned.

 
At 6:15 AM, October 23, 2006, Blogger Lootie said...

Tony ,

Seeing as you have the Gov't legal mind . Can you explain the Hatch Act to us all ?

Is there a litmus test as to if one could be in violation of Hatch ? Does it effect Local Political offices or is it just State and federal ?

Someone said 12% of the money being federal tosses one into Hatch violation . Is that true ?

What about Grants ? Do federal Grants come into play with this % ?


I tried to read and understand Hatch but -- it was all GREEK to me.

 
At 6:51 AM, October 23, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No way, Tony, Talent is going down (I hope).

 
At 7:33 AM, October 23, 2006, Blogger UMRBlog said...

Waldo,

Re Minn, you're right. I was thinking Mr. Oral-Surgery-Gone-Wrong Coleman.

Vermont, also correct.

I really appreciate that you used my Humble Predictions as a starting point for a discussion of this. That was my hope.

 
At 7:37 AM, October 23, 2006, Blogger UMRBlog said...

Anon 0651,

Polling supports your position. My thinking is that the opposition research just wears out CM, because she's been in public service so long.

Since I wrote HP, Dem's have thrown some counterattack money into Metro St. Louis and K.C. Key's in SWMO turnout and that is not a real big cause for hope.

Sure hope you're right but I'll stay with my prediction for now.

TYFCB

 
At 7:45 AM, October 23, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

7:37

What ain't right is that in metro STL & KC areas it takes too much time to vote, hours in some instances, it's to much of an inconveniance to vote, if that were fixed, it would maybe change the decor of the show me state to match that of the KC baseball team stead of the STL team.

 
At 9:47 AM, October 23, 2006, Blogger UMRBlog said...

Interesting,

This is the first post I've gotten heavy TELEPHONE response on.

The question is always the same. Is there a scenario where the dems take over?

Yes, Missouri and Rhode Island both going Dem and everything else holding. But note that Menendez and Stabenow are not locks and I've seen Mike DeWine wine races where he was hopelessly behind.

One other sundry: I'm not persuaded that Arizona is in the can for the GOP either. That is a bizarro race and Arizona has been rediscovering the democrat party.

 
At 6:37 AM, October 24, 2006, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am insterested to see how the Maryland race is going to turn out. Cspan said that Cardin only has 65% of the African American vote, and Steele is at 15%, if Steele can close that gap to 35% it will make a real interesting race. I don't see how a Democrat can win with only 65% of the african american vote.

 
At 8:55 AM, October 24, 2006, Blogger UMRBlog said...

Anon 0637,

For reasons that I don't completely understand Steele in underrunning where a repub should be in the MD./DC suburbs and in Balt. County. From the little dab I've heard, the two fugitive constituencies cancel each other out. Leakage among blacks is compensated by GOP leakage in the 'burbs. Good news for Cardin is the 'burbs are easier to turn out.

But you're right. For those of us who believe that constituencies ultimately resort to type, it's hard to accept the current data as showing a comfortable Cardin win. Stronger than Talent/McC, weaker than Stabenow and Menenedez is where I put it in the continuum.

BTW, as a democrat, when there's only one scenario where we win, I never anticipate success. Too many variables.

 

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