HUMBLE SENATE PREDICTIONS: YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR
Two weeks out, here are my Senate Predictions. As you can see, this is a recipe for gridlock:
SEAT FAVORITE STATUS COMMENT
AZ/KYLE KYL NO CHNG PEDERSON
HAS A FUTURE
CA/FEINSTEIN FEINSTEIN NO CHNG
CONN/LIEBERMAN LIEBERMAN TAKEAWAY D to "I"
DELAWARE CARPER NO CHNG
FLA NELSON NO CHNG
HAWAII AKAKA NO CHNG
INDIANA LUGAR NO CHNG
MAINE SNOW NO CHNG
MD. CARDIN NO CHNG
MASS KENNEDY NO CHNG
MICH STABENOW NO CHNG SNEAKY
CLOSE
MINN KLOBUCHAR TAKEAWAY
MISS LOTT NO CHNG
MO. TALENT NO CHNG
MONTANA TESTER TAKEAWAY
NE B NELSON NO CHNG
NV ENSIGN NO CHNG CARTER
HAD $ BUT
NO
THEME
NJ MENENDEZ NO CHNG UGLY
NM BINGAMAN NO CHNG
NY CLINTON NO CHNG
ND CONRAD NO CHNG
OHIO BROWN TAKEAWAY GOP HAS
KISSED IT
OFF
PENN CASEY TAKEAWAY
RHODE ISLAND CHAFEE NO CHANGE UPSET
PICK
TENN FORD TAKEAWAY
TX HUTCHISON NO CHNG
UTAH HATCH NO CHNG
VERMONT SANDERS TAKEAWAY (D TO I)
VA. ALLEN NO CHNG CHOICE
BTWN 2
JERKS
WA CANTWELL NO CHNG
WV BYRD NO CHNG
WISC KOHL NO CHNG
WYOMING THOMAS CHNG
If this plays out the way I predict, there'll be 47 dems, three independents and 50 Repubs. The I's would caucus with the dems but the leadership seats would go to the GOP. Of course, Cheney would still break ties. GOP could get a takeaway in NJ or Mich. GOP could get a "hold" in Tenn. Dems could get an additional takeaway in Virginia but I think GOP will lock Allen up in a rubber room to prevent his making any more enemies or ethnic slurs.
Yes, I know. Didn't predict a takeaway in MO.
Labels: NATIONAL POLITICS
posted by UMRBlog @ 13:14
8 comments
8 Comments:
With that set of results the composition would in fact be GOP 51 Dem 47 Ind 2
Minnesota cannot be a Dem takeway, since the seat is presently Dayton's.
In Vermont, Jeffords is retiring. The election of Sanders would be an indy hold, not a gain. Leaving total of two independents if Lieberman is returned.
No way, Tony, Talent is going down (I hope).
Waldo,
Re Minn, you're right. I was thinking Mr. Oral-Surgery-Gone-Wrong Coleman.
Vermont, also correct.
I really appreciate that you used my Humble Predictions as a starting point for a discussion of this. That was my hope.
Anon 0651,
Polling supports your position. My thinking is that the opposition research just wears out CM, because she's been in public service so long.
Since I wrote HP, Dem's have thrown some counterattack money into Metro St. Louis and K.C. Key's in SWMO turnout and that is not a real big cause for hope.
Sure hope you're right but I'll stay with my prediction for now.
TYFCB
7:37
What ain't right is that in metro STL & KC areas it takes too much time to vote, hours in some instances, it's to much of an inconveniance to vote, if that were fixed, it would maybe change the decor of the show me state to match that of the KC baseball team stead of the STL team.
Interesting,
This is the first post I've gotten heavy TELEPHONE response on.
The question is always the same. Is there a scenario where the dems take over?
Yes, Missouri and Rhode Island both going Dem and everything else holding. But note that Menendez and Stabenow are not locks and I've seen Mike DeWine wine races where he was hopelessly behind.
One other sundry: I'm not persuaded that Arizona is in the can for the GOP either. That is a bizarro race and Arizona has been rediscovering the democrat party.
I am insterested to see how the Maryland race is going to turn out. Cspan said that Cardin only has 65% of the African American vote, and Steele is at 15%, if Steele can close that gap to 35% it will make a real interesting race. I don't see how a Democrat can win with only 65% of the african american vote.
Anon 0637,
For reasons that I don't completely understand Steele in underrunning where a repub should be in the MD./DC suburbs and in Balt. County. From the little dab I've heard, the two fugitive constituencies cancel each other out. Leakage among blacks is compensated by GOP leakage in the 'burbs. Good news for Cardin is the 'burbs are easier to turn out.
But you're right. For those of us who believe that constituencies ultimately resort to type, it's hard to accept the current data as showing a comfortable Cardin win. Stronger than Talent/McC, weaker than Stabenow and Menenedez is where I put it in the continuum.
BTW, as a democrat, when there's only one scenario where we win, I never anticipate success. Too many variables.
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