PRIMARY DAY: CULVER, HARE, CALIFORNIA--"CENTRISTS" TAKE NOTICE
Interesting day around the Country. DLC types didn't win. Unabashed lefties and those not running from the dem. party won. Cal. Dem Sec'y of State Candidate won all but four counties! Ah-nold, are you watching?
The press made a big deal of the outcome of Billbray-Busby but she pretty much spit the bit in the last week and still only lost by four percent. This was freaking Duke Cunningham's district which the GOP should have won by 25%. Unless the GOP can put the bandaid from Hell on this thing by October or so, "The Hammer's" empire is likely be diluted or totally unwound.
One caution: five months in politics is like 100 lifetimes. The twists and turns between now and then should be endless.
posted by UMRBlog @ 04:58
5 comments
5 Comments:
In 2004 Busby was an unknown school board member running against a popular incumbent Vietnam war hero.
She lost by 22%.
This time she was a known entity running against a weak candidate with the incumbent sitting in jail for taking bribes.
Kerry took 45% of this district in 2004. Busby took 45% here.
The 22% difference was just an anomaly based on an unknown running against a popular incumbent.
Comparing this to the 2004 Presidential numbers is more accurate.
Thanks for coming by.
Using the prez election is not an accurate measure. This district is twenty per cent retired navy, a plus for Kerry.
I do agree that the 22% is an aberration. I disagree that Bilbray was a weak candidate. He'd been elected three other times in a comparable district. Busby did unravel at the end and still ran at 46%...and she was a very weak candidate.
Where we can probably both agree is that I see no national implications for this race. It's a unique situation. Plus California almost never has any application for the rest of the country.
Gore got the same % in 2000:
2000 - Gore carries 45% of CA 50.
2004 - Kerry carries 45% of CA 50.
2006 Primary - Busby carries 45% of CA 50.
2006 Run-off - Busby carries 45.45% of CA 50.
The military, retired and active, consistantly goes about 52-44 republican. 2004 was no different,
even with Kerry "reporting for duty".
If Eglin [Air Force Base] were in Alabama instead of Florida,
Al Gore would be in the White House.
The part about this not being a bellweather race, I agree.
All the national Democratic money flowing into this race could only
get Busby up to Kerry’s losing level even after the incumbent resigned
in one of the biggest congressional bribery cases in decades. Apparently she was weak.
I'm a native Quincyan who has lived in California (Bay Area) for the last 21 years. I just discovered this blog.
California is the land of extremes politically, except for Arnold, the Governator. Arnold is positioning himself in the center. There were even reports that he might endorse Dianne Feinstein in her reelection race this fall, although some Republicans were none too happy about that. My prediction is that Arnold will be reelected over Phil Angelides. Wesley would have had a better chance. But as is often the case out here, more centrist candidates have a hard time surviving their party's primary, even if they would have been more electable in the general election. The classic case was when Tom Campbell lost to Bruce Hirschenson in the Republican primary, after which Democrat Liberal Barbara Boxer was elected US Senator. Many believe that Campbell would have given Boxer all she could handle.
Welcome!
I just don't get Angelides. Seems to be relying on economy and "blue state" without much a progressive plan. Ahnold is still the debtmeister but he might get away with it. Gas goes down just a little and power stays on, he could win his first real election.
You're right about the "edges". Willie Brown and Ronald Reagan, go figure!
Please come back often.
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