Tuesday, November 06, 2012

SWAGS FOR THE EVENING

For the uninitiated, SWAG = scientific wild-assed guess:

Illinois CD 17  Bustos 51+ Schilling 48+ 

The only argument for Schilling being in Congress was that he wasn't Phil Hare.  Bustos put on a Hell of a campaign and Schilling lost "nice guy" points when the attack ads on Bustos started.  Also Schilling was behind on the Belvidere assistance and the Freeport runaway shop.  The Tea Party elected a nice, if not nimble dude in 2010 and the not nimble catches up to them this time.

State Senate    Sullivan 52+ Frese 47+

Note: first time Sullivan doesn't win Adams County

Just a really cringeworthy campaign by both of these guys.  Sullivan had an excuse.  He had to run while convalescing from major abdominal surgery.  Frese has no excuse.  This was a winnable race and I believe it will prove out that he pissed it away.  Interesting to see the aftermath here.  Ten years ago Frese was a nice guy, citzen-politician.  By becoming County Chairman and running this attack campaign, devoid of fresh ideas beyond a generic "I'll spend less."  He leaves office looking partisan and thuggy.

People just love John Sullivan but endless attack ads have a way of raising questions about a guy, the kind folks don't ask you to your face.  I think you'll see Sullivan talk a bit more to the folks back home about spending and budgetary matters and a little less about how everybody gets along to do the people's business in the Illinois Senate.

Adams County Circuit Clerk

Geschwander 14322  Donahue 15128

There is no, repeat, no argument for Donahue occupying this office.  Does anybody really believes it is her life's ambition to file papers in the county courthouse?  But this is an old population and the old people still have fond memories of Donahue's family.  Also, Donahue is very personable (except when she's pissed) and an able campaigner.  Geschwander got much better at greeting the public but is not a natural backslapper/babykisser.  In addition, Donahue is a Republican and in Adams County that is the tie breaker (whether things are tied or not.).

Total Ballots Pulled Adams County

30800.

Adams County Results, President of the United States

Obama 9240
Romney 21560

Electrical Aggregation, Quincy

Narrowly Pass

There is a small government, libertarian argument against this and some folks have made it well.  The counterargument is "it'll save you money on your electric bill".  I'm guessing pocketbook vote here (although I'm not sure I know what a pocketbook even is.)

Judge Mays Retention

90%, Retained. 

Coulda saved the print costs on this one.  Hell, even the people Judge sends to the Pen think he's a nice guy.  That could be because he actually IS a nice guy.

Electoral College (Final)

Obama 284

Romney 254 

Of the nine swing states, I see Romney winning Fla., NC, Virginia and Colorado, Obama NH, OH, WI, IA and NV.  This is probably the last time we see Virginia red and It wouldn't surprise me if OH and VA are not official for more than a week.  It wouldn't shock me to see NV turn red either.  There are two red CD and a GOP favoring Senate race there.  But it looks like 15% of the turnout is hispanic, Obama probably holds on.  NV will not change the outcome in my scenario anyhow.  Wouldn't look for any victory or concession speeches tonight. 

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