Wednesday, November 03, 2010

BEFORE THE TEA PARTY BREAKS BOTH ARMS...

...Patting itself on the back, let me tell you who REALLY decided this election, writ large (See, Iowa generally, Ohio generally , Illinois Senate Seat).

There were basically three tiers of clearly defined voters who acted in numbers this time.  First was the Upper Middle to Middle class folks who cared about nothing but avoiding any additional taxes. They came out in large numbers.  Then there was the working poor who were just pissed off at the party in power.  These two groups are loosely lumped when talking heads sloppily refer to the "tea party" vote.  Most of these people would not self-identify as "TEA party"  They are pissed off all by themselves.  They didn't need any movement to be pissed off.

But the Third Tier is where this election is decided.  That tier is the HCND's.  That stands for "Hopey-Changey Neo-Democrats".  These are the (mostly) first time voters who had to call the doctor in 2008 because they were experiencing an Election lasting more than four hours. They worshipped the ground BHO walked on and were excited to be in the process.  They heard "Houston, this is our time.  This is our moment" and never bothered to ask the questions "Time for What?" and "Who is 'us' ?"  All they knew was they were gonna make history.  Well, been there, done that.  This time, instead of making history, they were history.  Each of their Hopey-Changey little feet found 315 other places to be and they somehow never got around to voting.  They weren't mad.  They weren't even disenchanted.  They were just dillentantes who had moved on to some other new hobby.   It was basically "Why should I vote in this boring, old mid-term.  Nobody's going to Grant Park afterward.  Let's get a movie." 

Some sociologist someday will do a white paper on this being the most perishable political movement in the post modern age.  I will simply, going forward, refer to them as the HCNDs and leave it at that.

6 Comments:

At 8:15 PM, November 04, 2010, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Except the exit polling doesn't support your argument.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39974943/

Tea party supporters accounted for about 4 in 10 voters Tuesday, and they voted overwhelmingly Republican.

 
At 8:40 PM, November 04, 2010, Blogger UMRBlog said...

Gosh, ya think my first two categories don't include the forty percent of normal GOP voters? I wasn't saying none of them showed up.

Sheesh!

TYFCB

 
At 8:58 AM, November 05, 2010, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A couple months ago, only 23% "self identified" as Tea party, yet 70% said they preferred less government, fewer entitlements, and lower taxes.

Big media and Democrats have worked very hard to describe Tea partiers as ignorant, racist, hillbillies. That has kept many from self identifying with TP, as I see it.

Democrats attempted to motivate your HCND's by telling them to go vote so that Sarah Palin would not win. (from Hopey Changey to Hating Conservatives). Following the rules for radicals, they personalized their TP target by associating Palin, Limbaugh, and Timmy McVeigh with Tea party activism.

Perhaps hate motivation is not as strong as the dope of hope. But it could also be that HCND's discovered their new age messiah was a snake oil salesman, with a lot of communist friends.

The country is center right, and having far left Obama/Reid/Pelosi legislating against 70% (the real TP) of the population, may have been what REALLY decided this election. Independents believed in change, and changed heavily from Obama dope to Republican/TP hope.

Dillentantes? I guess you meant Dylantantes. Those are the 60's amateur radicals that worshiped a songwriter that couldn't sing. And Bob only made sense if you were smoking some of the 60's hopey changey weather underground weedy.

The 70% don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. They just said "NO".

Bill

 
At 12:51 PM, November 05, 2010, Blogger UMRBlog said...

Bill,

A million thanks. Just when I get ready to hang up my GoDaddy registration because the blogosphere is not producing much useful thought, I get a literate, well conceived response. I mean it. Thank you.

You and I are saying nearly the same thing. The HCND's decided races like Kirk, Bean and Seals by staying away. We may differ on the reasons and we may differ on how to label the increase in party id but we saw the same thing.

Thanks for the clever writing. You blew a little sunshine into an otherwise dull day.

 
At 2:01 PM, November 05, 2010, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks ... glad to contribute.

I like that you open your blog to comments on local elections, as well as national. In time I may learn about the more local action, but I'm surprised more people don't join in the discussions.

Back room deals happen a lot no doubt, but on the other hand, too often the public just doesn't care to get involved. I see the internet as a great way to open debate to many informed people, without having to jam everyone into a set time and place.

Also in a public forum, one or two loud people can overwhelm the discussion, but here those types can be muted or skimmed, allowing still small voices to emerge.

I hope you'll keep your site running. Your position and experience enables you to be an interesting "moderator", and you have a good read on the pulse of the UMRB.

cheers ...

Bill

 
At 2:19 PM, November 05, 2010, Blogger UMRBlog said...

Some voices I respect have quit coming here because I disagreed with them, maybe too sharply. Some won't come because it's a "democrat blog". Some won't come here because I'm not far enough left and often bash my friends at MoveOn.org or DFA. (Stay tuned for a rant on Blanche Lincoln later).

I can be a bit of a smart ass (especially since I am self-employed and busy and sometimes don't linger over prose long enough.) but I really try to invite anyone who wishes to express themselves even moderately civilly to take on my topics.

Of course then there are those who think "You Suck!" is a substantive comment.

There's plenty to write about in the next little while.

TYFCB

 

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