Sunday, May 18, 2008

QUINCY, PALOMA, PALMYRA, SAUDI ARABIA AND AROUND THE WORLD: IDLE SPECULATION ABOUT CRUDE BEHAVIOR

OK, we all know the price of oil is going up. We hear all the reasons: Supply, Demand, Delivery interruptions, Oligopoly. I get all that.

But a lot of people, Politicians, Economists and Folks in the industry say it's also because of "Speculation". In the abstract, "Speculation" is a value-free term. It just means trading against future events. Folks have speculated on commodities since at least cradle-of-civilization-Egypt. In it's purest form, speculation should not increase or decrease price. It should REVEAL price, even EXPEDITE accurate pricing. After all, trading is just a method of setting Fair Market Value.

When I say that to folks, they say "But what about silver in the early 80's and Bunker Hunt?" That was the opposite of speculation. That was market-rigging or, if you will, price-fixing. Some Koreans did the same thing with Soy Oil a few years ago. That wasn't speculation, it was filthy market-rigging.

OPEC is a constant. Relatively minor supply interruptions are a constant.

Somebody please explain to us how "Speculation" in its open, free, lawful trading sense adds to the price of oil. I'm really curious to understand the argument.

For that matter, if you know of some illegal trading practice that bumps the price of Crude up, I'd be interested in knowing three things: First, who's doing it; Second, how does it work; and, Third, To what regulators have you already reported your evidence of it.

This one's about crude trading. Let's leave the relationship between the price of crude and the price of gas for another day.

2 Comments:

At 8:18 AM, May 19, 2008, Blogger TOOKIE said...

I will fill you in on this .

Much has to do with the death of Enron and now Hedge Funds rulling Houston .

Enron at one point in time was a benevelant giant that totally control oil, gas, natural gas, and electric .........


They in reality kept prices low for years . Then GREED TOOK OVER !


Right now picture Mike Milkan and the likes trading USA's energy !

 
At 8:31 AM, May 19, 2008, Blogger UMRBlog said...

You're either missing my point or making it. I can't tell.

Market manipulation is different from "speculation". In fact, it is the opposite of speculation. Manipulation sets a market. Speculation ultimately finds it.

Somebody explain to me how "speculation" increases the price of a commodity beyond FMV.

TYFCB

 

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