The Upper Mississippi River Basin:Life, Worship, Sports, Transportation, Golf, Politics and other bizarre behaviors in the Upper Mississippi River Basin. The Quincy area has a history of tolerance. We seem to suffer fools gladly.
Four hundred of you actually voted for Senator Obama and came down and gave this Clinton delegate candidate a vote. That took some thought and effort. Thanks, too, to the friends who spread the word among committed Obama voters.
posted by UMRBlog @ 11:56
9 comments
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9 Comments:
Unless either Hillary or Obama concedes a winnable race for the good of the party (shall we take bets on the odds on the Clintons relinquishing power for the greater good? Anyone remember 1998?), the Democratic presidential nominee will not be elected by the voters but will be selected by the "superdelegates" (the party elite) and/or through machinations at the convention (mark your calendars - August 25!)
The Ds can avoid the bad scenario. The bad scenario is when one candidate wins the pledged delegates but losing the overall delegates.
There are myriad ways that superdelegates matter but are not decisive. We are to the point that superdelegates will matter. But whether they change the outcome is not clear at all.
For example, if Hillary wins the majority of pledged delegates and superdelegates, there is no bad situation.
If Obama wins a majority of pledged delegates and a minority of superdelegates but still wins, there is no bad situation.
It's really the chance that Obama wins the pledged, Hillary wins the super AND Hillary wins the overall. That's the bad situation that will possible create a "Insiders Deny First Black Candidate Nomination" headline.
..or insiders change rules, hand nomination to Clinton Florida and Michigan delegates seated and vote overwhelmingly for Clinton.
Your last para. is the nightmare scenario.
The Minor League Nightmare scenario is for Super's who've already given their word to start flipping.
As you know, there are many ways for Supers to pledge (I'll go with my district; I'll go with my City; I'll go with my Chairman; I'll go with my Senior Senator; I'll go for [fill in the name]).
It will be as toxic with women voter/democrats if Supers jump backwards for Obama as if Rules get changed to help Hillary.
TYFCB
Glad to give you a vote Umr... You would have done even better had you taken my advice and run as "The Law and Order" Delegate. Much like Spiro Agnew.
Should make for delicious entertainment. The party that prides itself on fairness and equality will end up having to appear to be unfair to a black man or a woman. Let the wailing begin!
Does this mean you're going to the convention?
At this point, given that Hillary is loaning her campaign money with staff going unpaid, who do you see as having the advantage?
0643,
Thanks for asking. Two things have to be determined first. I should no later today whether I got the last delegate spot in CD17. I think not. Even if HRC gets two dels, I think I will be edged out by one of my colleagues from Knox County. If that's true, it couldn't happen to a better, more committed democrat.
Actually, I may very well be there with some other duties, even if I'm not a del.
When I get the word, I'll put it here in the Basin.
TYFCB
0738,
The Loan was going to happen at some point anyhow. The "working without pay" thing is a little overblown. That's NY staff who really have no more job to do and want to stay involved. They'll take to the road and be expensed in the Hyatt, so it's not like they're going out to Cummins prison farm.
We will be able to tell a lot by the staging of fundraisers. WJC can raise money, it just wasn't a priority in January. It must be now. He'll go to the states where there have already been results and to his charitable givers who haven't maxed.
I think you have to look at Louisiana, Maryland and Virginia as one big state. If she comes out of that group with about the same number of delegates as he, she turns to Pennsylvania and Ohio with an advantage. She probably contests the Washington State Cauc but maybe not Nebraska. Now especially, she's gotta stay with her big state strategy.
If he wants to contest TX, he's gonna have to drain the piggy bank. Still, if he doesn't tell Hispanics and lower middle class folks how he's gonna fix the economy, he's not competitive in Ohio, Penn and Tx.
But he's got two things going for him. His donor list (which includes gobs of lobbyists, by the way.) has more names and fewer maxes. He also has a friendly press (underdogs sell soap). Russert has basically gone total manlove, even to the point where he put out some impossible delegate numbers, not even arithmetically possible, as if they were the current numbers.
To answer your questions, her claim to the current underdog is more credible than his.
TYFCB
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